The liquidity deficit in the banking system crossed Rs 2 trillion again on Monday, despite the second instalment of cash reserve ratio (CRR) reduction coming into effect from December 28.
'There is no irrational exuberance when it comes to mainboard IPOs.' 'Most issues are by good quality businesses.'
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected retail inflation at 4.2 percent for the next financial year beginning April while retaining the forecast for 2024-25 at 4.8 percent. The central bank attributed the expected easing of inflation to good kharif production, winter-easing in vegetable prices and favorable rabi crop prospects. However, the RBI also noted that continued uncertainty in global financial markets coupled with volatility in energy prices and adverse weather events presents upside risks to the inflation trajectory.
Stock markets will be driven by quarterly earnings by index majors, global trends and the RBI's interest rate decision this week after digesting news on budget proposals and US Federal policy outcome, say analysts. The trading activity of foreign investors and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also dictate trends in equities. "On the domestic front, the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting is scheduled from February 6-8.
'Because the same stupid questions are repeated year after year when an exam should provoke the students to think and not ask repetitive questions.' 'So, what do coaching institutes do? They teach students to memorise these questions and answers without understanding the subject.'
Retail investors have been the hardest hit in the recent market downturn, with stocks where they hold over 20% falling 45% from their 52-week highs.
Unemployment rate in urban areas during the third quarter (October-December) of FY25 remained unchanged at 6.4 per cent compared to the preceding quarter, according to the latest quarterly Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) data released by the Ministry of Statistics on Tuesday. While the unemployment rate for men worsened marginally to 5.8 per cent in Q3 from 5.7 per cent in Q2, for women, it improved to 8.1 per cent from 8.4 per cent.
The Reserve Bank of India's interest rate decision, macroeconomic data and global trends will drive investors' sentiment this week, with markets hoping to continue the positive momentum after ending FY24 on a buoyant note, analysts said. In addition, the trading activity of foreign investors, the rupee-dollar trend and the movement of global oil benchmark Brent crude would also influence trading in equity markets. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85 per cent in the 2023-24.
With India overtaking China in terms of weightage in the Morgan Stanley emerging markets IMI, Indian equities could see inflows of about $4.5 billion (Rs 37,000 crore), according to estimates. This week, Morgan Stanley announced that India has overtaken China in the MSCI Emerging Markets Investable Market Index (MSCI EM IMI). The weight of India in MSCI EM IMI stood at 22.27 per cent compared to 21.58 per cent of China.
'The market's sharp decline recently has shaken the confidence of retail investors, leading to increased selling.'
Fraudsters read your mind, weave convincing stories, earn your trust and then vanish with people's savings. Ramalingam Kalirajan reveals five simple tricks that cons use to steal money from you.
Global brokerage firm CLSA has reversed its early tactical shift from Indian equities to Chinese stocks, and has decided to raise India allocation while cutting exposure to China. In its report titled 'Pouncing Tiger, Prevaricating Dragon', CLSA cited challenges facing Chinese markets in the aftermath of Donald Trump's victory in the US elections as the reason for the move. "Misfortune can happen in threes. So it has played out for Chinese equities over the past week.
'Rising from humble beginnings in a small town, you burst onto the national scene, made a name for yourself and most importantly, made India proud'
Equity benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty rebounded sharply on Monday after five days of steep decline amid value buying at lower levels and a rally in global markets. Besides, hectic buying in blue-chip stocks ITC, HDFC Bank and Reliance Industries also helped in market recovery.
Indian stock markets are expected to be driven mostly by global factors this week amid a lack of local triggers and earnings season largely coming to an end, say analysts. Crude oil prices, rupee movement and US Federal Reserve meeting minutes to be released this week will also influence the market sentiment. "With the earnings season behind us, global cues would largely dictate the trend in the coming week," Ajit Mishra, SVP - technical research, Religare Broking Ltd, said.
The share of companies where it would take over 100 years for a median employee to earn the equivalent of their top executive's annual salary rose to 65 per cent in FY24 from 61 per cent in FY19.
'They sell such ideas in the name of 'national interest'.' 'What national interest are they talking about?' 'There is no national interest in this. The only interest that is there is their profit.'
Global trends, trading activity of foreign investors, outcome of state elections and RBI's interest rate decision are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "Global markets are currently in a fabulous mood. The US 10-year bond yield and the dollar index are also cooling off, which gives strength to the market. These factors will be closely monitored, as they have the potential to influence market sentiment," said Pravesh Gour, senior technical analyst, Swastika Investmart Ltd. On the political front, the results of assembly elections in five states are eagerly anticipated, Gour said.
The derivatives trading volume has seen a 37 per cent month-on-month decline in December following a slew of measures undertaken by the market regulator Securities Exchange Board of India (Sebi) to curb the frenzy in the derivatives segment. The average daily turnover (ADTV) for the derivatives segment (notional turnover for options segment) so far this month is at Rs 280 trillion - the lowest since June 2023-compared to Rs 442 trillion in November.
'Selling could further intensify and take the index towards 22,800-22,750 in the near-term.'
From the 30-share pack, Hindustan Unilever, Tata Motors, Axis Bank, Nestle India, Asian Paints, ITC, Reliance Industries, Mahindra & Mahindra, IndusInd Bank and State Bank of India were among the laggards. Larsen & Toubro, Tata Steel, JSW Steel, HDFC Bank, Adani Ports, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Bharti Airtel and PowerGrid were among the gainers.
Among the 11 equity sub-categories, thematic funds received the highest net inflows at Rs 9,017 crore, followed by smallcap funds at Rs 5,721 crore and flexicap funds at Rs 5,698 crore.
'A lot of parents tell their children, "You are not good enough. The neighbour's child is so good. Why can't you be like him?"' 'I want to tell all parents and children that all of us are created with absolute brilliance.' 'My life is an example. From 42% in my board examination, I became one of the IAS toppers.' 'Every child should have his or her own dream to chase; not their parents' or not somebody else's.'
Shareholders of industry giants Adani Enterprises, Reliance Industries, and Tata Motors - the latter two are part of the Sensex - will decide on combined related-party transactions of more than Rs 2.68 trillion proposed for this financial year and later. Related-party transactions for BSE 500 companies touched at least a six-year high of Rs 42.1 trillion in FY23, the Capitaline data shows. The Rs 42.1 trillion includes related-party transactions both at balance-sheet and profit-and-loss levels.
Ranveer Allahbadia found an easy way of asking questions which made sense to him and his team. No counter-questions or finding out the 'Why?' from the celebrity he was speaking to. The 'Why?' was buried and forgotten in Ranveer's shows, observes Syed Firdaus Ashraf.
Trump's sweeping tariffs and penalties on China-built ships have turned global shipping into the front line of economic war, observes Shyam G Menon.
The Indian economy is expected to be "a little weaker" in 2025 despite steady global growth, IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva has said. Georgieva also said she expects quite a lot of uncertainty in the world this year mainly around the trade policy of the US. In her annual media roundtable with a group of reporters on Friday, she said global growth is expected to be steady in 2025, but with regional divergence.
IT attrition rate is expected to be around 12% to 13% this year.
Implications for capital gains, wealth taxes, and investment strategies require careful consideration, notes Anil Rego, founder and CEO, RightHorizons.
The market capitalisation (mcap) cutoff to qualify for mutual funds' (MFs') largecap universe is likely to go up for the fifth consecutive time to touch the Rs 1 trillion mark for the first time. A fresh list of largecap, midcap, and smallcap stocks is set to be released by the Association of Mutual Funds in India (Amfi) in the first week of January.
Interim Budget, the US Federal policy decision and quarterly earnings will be the major drivers for stock markets which may also see some consolidation this week, say analysts. Besides, investors would also focus on the trading activity of foreign investors and global trends for further cues. From the macroeconomic front, the PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) data for the manufacturing sector is scheduled to be announced on Thursday.
Equity markets would take cues from domestic inflation data announcement, global trends and trading activity of foreign investors in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Markets would remain closed on Tuesday for 'Diwali Balipratipada'. "As we enter a truncated week with Muhurat trading on Sunday, global cues will play a pivotal role in shaping the market direction.
While liquidity in the banking system has turned surplus in the last few weeks, it could go back to deficit again, mainly due to corporate advance tax outflows. The net liquidity surplus of the banking system rose to touch Rs 1 trillion on Tuesday on the back of government spending, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
The recent stimulus measures announced by China have seen most analysts sit up and take notice.
Global trends and trading activity of foreign investors would largely dictate terms in the equity markets this week amid a lack of major domestic triggers, analysts said. Markets may face near-term consolidation due to elevated valuations, they noted. "While the previous week was predominantly shaped by developments in the US Federal Reserve policy, attention will now shift to the Bank of Japan's policy decision on December 19," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said.
In a first, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has announced that it will conduct daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions on all working days in Mumbai, until further notice. The daily auctions, aimed at easing the current liquidity tightness in the banking system, will begin on Friday, with a notified amount of Rs 50,000 crore.
Rupee depreciation, if it continues, will likely pull the markets down further. Since September 2024, the rupee has declined by 3.1 per cent, the Nifty has dropped by 8.5 per cent during the same period, and the Sensex has fallen by 7.3 per cent. If the decline continues, markets will need to brace for more pain as it could push foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) to exit their positions faster than anticipated.
Bond market participants expect an open market operation (OMO) auction in the first week of November as the banking system liquidity is expected to ease on the back of government spending and maturity of bonds. According to market participants, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will issue a notification on OMO sales by October 31. They speculate that the central bank might conduct the auctions in multiple tranches of Rs 10,000 crore.
Movement in the equity market this week will largely be dictated by quarterly earnings of blue-chip firms HDFC Bank and Hindustan Unilever, along with the announcement of WPI inflation data and global trends, analysts said. Trading activity of foreign investors, global oil benchmark Brent crude and rupee-dollar trend would also guide the movement.
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